00100	EVALUATION 
00200	
00300		The primary aim in constructing this model  was  to  explore,
00400	clarify, develop, test and improve -all with a model- a theory having
00500	explanatory value. To satisfy this aim, the model must meet norms  of
00600	internal    consistency   (systemicity)   and   norms   of   external
00700	correspondence with observation (testability). A secondary aim  would
00800	involve pragmatic norms of application.  These aims are not unrelated
00900	but the primary one is more  fundamental  since  useful  applications
01000	require some degree of consistency and correspondence to observation.
01100		As emphasized in Chapter  2,  a  model  in  the  form  of  an
01200	algorithm  consists  of  a structure of functions or procedures whose
01300	inner workings are  sufficient  to  reproduce  the  outward  symbolic
01400	behavior  under  consideration.   The theory embodied in the model is
01500	revealed  in  the  set of statements which illuminate the connections
01600	betweeen input and output, i.e.  which  describe  how  the  structure
01700	reacts under various circumstances.
01800		What constitutes a satisfactory explanation has been  treated
01900	in  2.1.     The "fit" or correspondence with facts of observation as
02000	indicated by measurements and empirical tests indicating  the  degree
02100	of  faithfulness  of  the  reproduction  were described in Chapter 6.
02200	Given that the model has met the above criteria, what does it  as  an
02300	artifact tell us about naturally-occurring paranoid processes?
02400		First, the model attempts to revisualize  or  reconceptualize
02500	the  phenomena  of  paranoid disorders. It draws attention to factors
02600	(such as the scan for alecolence and  humiliation)  which  might  not
02700	otherwise  be  attended  to.  Paranoid  disorders  are  not viewed as
02800	first-order "diseases" but as a mode of processing symbols  secondary
02900	to  a  primary  disturbance.   The  patterns  of  linguistic paranoid
03000	behavior observed in an  interview  are  produced  by  an  underlying
03100	organized  structure  and  not by a variety of random and unconnected
03200	mechanical failures. Second, the underlying structure consists of  an
03300	algorithm,   an   organization  of  symbol-processing  strategies  or
03400	procedures. Third, the model as an analogy indicates that  to  change
03500	this structure, its procedures must be accessible to reprogramming in
03600	the higher-level language of the algorithm. Finally, as a  conceptual
03700	reform,  the  model  suggests  that  other types of psychopathologies
03800	might be viewed from a symbol-processing standpoint.
03900		Decision procedures for consensus acceptability  of  a  model
04000	sometimes  depend  not  so  much  on  truth,  an elusive state, as on
04100	whether a majority of the  relevant  expert  community  believes  the
04200	theory  or  model to approximate truth to some unknown and unknowable
04300	degree and to be better than promising available  alternatives,  that
04400	is,  to  be  the  best  we  can  do for the time being. Validation is
04500	ultimately a private experience of the individual. Empirical truth or
04600	falsity  cannot  be  proven with certainty, but their presence can be
04700	assayed by some sort of critical assessment and deliberation. We  can
04800	forgive models for being only nearly true.   A theory  or  model  may
04900	bring  cognitive  or  pragmatic  comfort,  not because it is TRUE but
05000	because it represents an improvement over its contending rivals.
05200		Cognitive comfort is a  type  of  intellectual  satisfaction.
05300	Pragmatic  comfort  accrues from applications to problems in order to
05400	make things work the way humans want  them  to  work  efficiently  in
05500	practical  contexts  of  technological  action. For the pragmatist, a
05600	model is a means to an end;  for  the  theoretician,  an  explanatory
05700	model  is  an end in itself. It is hoped that this paranoid model can
05800	contribute to understanding one of the mysteries  of  human  conduct,
05900	the  paranoid mode. There remains the enigma of the paranoid "streak"
06000	which renders whole nations  susceptible  to  ideological convictions
06100	in which Elsewhereans are believed to be malevolent oppressors.
06200		It  is  a  truism  of  methodology textbooks that an infinite
06300	number of theories or  models  can  account  for  the  same  data  of
06400	observation.        Without   questioning  whether  "infinite"  means
06500	indefinitely large or just more than one, we  must  allow  for  rival
06600	explanations.  For a rival to be a live and tenable option, it should
06700	be truly alternative (i.e., not just a family version saying the same
06800	thing  in  a  different way), and be confirmable or disconfirmable by
06900	tests.
07000		Although I  hold  that  faithful  reproduction,  fidelity  as
07100	measured  by  indistinguishability  along  specific  dimensions, is a
07200	proper and major test for the adequacy of simulation models, it would
07300	be a bonus if our model could satisfy the function of making possible
07400	new knowledge through prediction.     The  term  "prediction"  has  a
07500	spectrum   of   meanings  ranging  from  forecasts  to  prognoses  to
07600	prophecies to precise point-predictions in time.  To predict (and  to
07700	postdict)  from  a  theory  or model is to derive and announce a fact
07800	prior to knowledge of  its  actual  occurrence.   However  one  needs
07900	knowledge  of the kind of fact expected, the conditions which produce
08000	it and the circumstances under which it will occur. The  interest  in
08100	prediction  may  stem  from  a  desire (1) to confirm or disconfirm a
08200	theory or model or (2) to obtain useful information about the future,
08300	as in weather forecasting.  Celestial mechanics provides the ideal of
08400	accurate long-range predictions.   But  even  astronomers,  with  the
08500	advantage  of  studying  isolated  and repetitive systems, have their
08600	troubles.   In 1759 Halley's  comet  arrived  four  days  later  than
08700	predicted.    In  spite  of  our  advanced  20th century knowledge, a
08800	prediction made in 1962 was off by eight days, that is, twice as bad.
08900	(In  fairness we must make allowances for the fact that great masses,
09000	distances and velocities are involved).
09100		Predictions of individual human behavior are severely limited
09200	by  our  restrictions  of  knowledge.    For  example, (1) sufficient
09300	knowledge of initial conditions may require that we  know  the  whole
09400	past  history of an individual (something not yet achieved for even a
09500	single person), (2) individuals do not remain isolated over the  time
09600	stretch of the prediction; they interact with other individuals of an
09700	unknown nature, (3)  since  life  is  a  fortuitous  flux  of  chance
09800	intersections of independent causal chains, one would also have to be
09900	able to foresee events of the physical environment and  its  changes,
10000	(4)  the  process  of  observation  needed  to obtain information for
10100	predictions may have non-negligible and unforeseeable effects on  the
10200	observed.
10300		In  one  sense  our  paranoid  model  makes  moment-to-moment
10400	predictions and asserts  new  counterfactuals  about  behavior  in  a
10500	psychiatric  interview.  That  is,  if  an  interviewer  says X under
10600	conditions Y, then the model's  response  will  be  characterized  by
10700	z1...zn,   and   the   same   holds   true   for  paranoid  patients.
10800	Counterfactual  prediction  means  that  on  the  basis  of  observed
10900	behavior  we  are willing, with  an  inductive  risk,  to  assume the
11000	presence of unobserved behavior potentials in a model's or  patient's
11100	repertoire of capabilities.
11200		Predicting  new  kinds  of  events  or properties, instead of
11300	kinds we are already familiar with, would represent a genuine  bonus,
11400	indicating  the  model is more than ad hoc and has excess content. It
11500	would give both clinicians and investigators something to  look  for.
11600	This  novelty  could  arise  in  two  ways.    First, the model might
11700	demonstrate a property  of  the  paranoid  mode  hitherto  unobserved
11800	clinically.      In  principle  this could come about because the I-O
11900	behavior of  the  model  is  a  consequence  of  a  large  number  of
12000	interacting  hypotheses  and  assumptions chosen initially to explain
12100	frequently observed phenomena.    When the elements of such a complex
12200	conjunction  interact  with  highly  variable  inputs  they  generate
12300	consequences in addition to those  they  were  designed  to  explain.
12400	Whether  any  of these consequences are significant or characteristic
12500	of the paranoid mode remains a subject for future study.
12600		It  is  also  possible that a new property of paranoia may be
12700	discovered in the clinical  interview,  although  perhaps  everything
12800	that  can  be  said about paranoid dialogues has been said.  If a new
12900	property were found, a search  for  it  might  be  conducted  in  the
13000	model's  behavior. If successful, this again would add to the model's
13100	acceptability.
13200		A second novelty might arise in the behavior of the model  in
13300	some  new situation.   Since it is designed to simulate communicative
13400	behavior in an interview situation, the "new" circumstance would have
13500	to involve some new type of linguistic interaction to which the model
13600	is capable of responding. From its behavior one  might  then  predict
13700	how paranoid patients would behave under similar circumstances.   The
13800	requisite empirical tests and  measures  would  show  the  degree  of
13900	correspondence between patient and model behaviors.
14000		This possibility is of importance in considering emancipatory
14100	therapies for patients  entangled  in  the quandaries of the paranoid
14200	mode.    Since the model operates at a symbol processing level  using
14300	natural  language,  it  is      this  level  at  which linguistic and
14400	conceptual skills of clinicians can be  applied.   Language-based  or
14500	semantic  techniques  do not seem very effective in the psychoses but
14600	they are useful in states of lesser severity. A  wide  range  of  new
14700	semantic  techniques, including extremes, could be tried first on the
14800	model without subjecting patients to blind experimentation.
14900		While we have used the model principally to explore a  theory
15000	and  to study psychiatric judgements, its potential use as a training
15100	device has  not  escaped  our  reflections.    Medical  students  and
15200	psychiatric  residents  need  "disposable  patients"  to  practice on
15300	without jeopardy (to either). A version of  the  paranoid  model  can
15400	display  the  changes  in  its  inner  states  during  an  interview.
15500	Whether  the  optimal  goal  of  interviewing   (gathering   relevant
15600	information  without  upsetting  the patient)  has been achieved, can
15700	thus be estimated.     A  beginning  interviewer  could  practice  in
15800	private or with a supervisor present. Many interviewers have reported
15900	that the model has a definite effect on them.    The student can  get
16000	the  feel  of  the  paranoid mode long before he interviews an actual
16100	patient.     The effect  of  various  interviewing  styles  might  be
16200	studied and compared.
16300	
16400		Although this simulation of  paranoia  covers  a  variety  of
16500	facts,  it  is  circumscribed  in  what  it  attempts to explain. The
16600	proffered explanation is local and restricted in that it accounts for
16700	only  one  type  of  symbol-processing mode.  Past attempts at grand-
16800	scale explanations of all  mental  processes  in  all  contexts  have
16900	failed.  A  preferable  strategy, successful in other sciences, is to
17000	build one circumscribed and tested theory or model at a time so  that
17100	the  field  can  gradually  move  forward a step at a time, each step
17200	gaining consensus before attempting the next.